Affordability, reliability and lowering GHG emissions are the three pillars that need to be balanced to achieve energy security. How should governments balance these pillars?
So far, the federal political landscape in Canada in 2023 has been heavily impacted by challenges Canadians are encountering around affordability. Whether it be trying to buy groceries, put gas in their cars, pay for their current home or contemplate buying one for the first time. Inflation, global economic variances and federal policies have conspired to create a climate of anxiety for people around their individual circumstances. While many Canadians still are rightly concerned about climate change their immediate focus seems to be on their wallet.
Over the course of this past summer whether it being in polling data or in regional election contests evidence mounts that affordability is driving Canadians voting intentions not a current steadfast commitment to climate mitigation policy. As former Prime Minister Jean Chretien once famously said, “a proof is a proof is a proof.” So let me give you some.
In August a CTV News headline screamed, “Carbon tax ineffective in curbing fuel emissions, a majority of Canadians believe.” Based on Nanos Research data CTV reported that two-thirds of Canadians said it was a poor time to increase the carbon tax, with a majority saying they believe the tax on gas is ineffective at tackling climate change.
In a survey released on August 23, 2023, our own firm Abacus Data found that Canadians believe the most important issues facing Canada were the rising cost of living (73%), housing affordability and accessibility (47%), healthcare (45%), the economy (35%) and climate change and the environment (29%). Equally informative was to discover Canada’s biggest voting cohorts, Gen Z and Millennials, ranked the rising cost of living along with housing affordability and accessibility well above climate policy in the top issues matrix.
The provincial riding of Preston in Nova Scotia had basically been a Liberal stronghold for 30 years until the Nova Scotia Progressive Conservatives took over this summer. Why? This Halifax Global News headline helps get at that why — “N.S. Liberal leader fumes over federal carbon tax election sign by Progressive Conservatives.” According to Global’s reportage “…Conservative messaging around the federal carbon tax (had) a significant impact on voting in the wake of the by-election.” Liberal Leader Zach Churchill was none too pleased and complained that his provincial Liberals were painted with the same brush as the Trudeau government. Campaign dramatics aside this historic riding flip occurred when affordability pains were contrasted with environmental change policy.
“…on the public opinion front the battle to reduce our GHG emissions is losing to the immediacy of the pressures on the personal pocketbook.”
From wildfires, heat warnings, to hurricanes climate challenges still are ever present in our lives and going nowhere. But right now, in this moment on the public opinion front the battle to reduce our GHG emissions is losing to the immediacy of the pressures on the personal pocketbook. Canadians’ tolerance for additional individual sacrifice is low whether that comes from combatting higher costs to making sure they have cost effective reliable energy sources.
The pendulum will eventually swing back to climate urgency but that is unlikely to happen until Canadians feel on more secure financial ground.
Tim Powers, is the Chair of Summa Strategies Canada and the managing director of Abacus Data, both headquarters are in Ottawa. Mr. Powers appears regularly on CBC’s Power and Politics program as well as on VOCM in his home province of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Securing a delicate equilibrium between affordability, reliability, and emissions reduction is both achievable and a political necessity for any political party seeking government in Canada. As our country grapples with the urgent and unstoppable transition towards cleaner energy sources, getting it right is equally important to our economic vitality and the social well-being of our citizens. While these three pillars are sometimes presented as out of balance or incongruent with one another, that argument is typically in service of narrow partisan objectives. Our economic security is better served in governments that work to balance these pillars, which compels most governments to do so successfully. And as any recent Conservative platform silent on emissions reduction has demonstrated, typically doesn’t support any partisan expediency.
Affordability is justifiably the first pillar in your question. Given our current moment, it’s top of your list but also top of mind for policymakers. Canadian families are grappling with a steep increase in household expenses, driven mostly by the cost of borrowing, as well as the price of fuel for their vehicles and home heating. It ought to be a human right to access energy to heat your home as a fundamental necessity for safe shelter. Ensuring affordable access to energy advances the cause of social justice in any moment – including the one we’re living through now. It’s a key driver of the pace of supply transition or infrastructure investment, driving decision making and policy development.
“Ensuring affordable access to energy advances the cause of social justice in any moment – including the one we’re living through now.”
Reliability is likely the pillar on which we have the most success as a nation. Despite our vast, challenging geography, most Canadian families and businesses benefit from well-built energy infrastructure and, apart from a few memorable failures, rarely find concern with the reliability of our energy. This is, of course, not a universal experience. There are many communities – indigenous, remote, rural, and northern – that lack fundamental access to reliable energy sources, creating economic and social challenges. Bridging that divide through technological innovation – like the adoption of micro-grids, SMRs, and home heat pumps – must be a priority for any government. Doing so in a manner that supports decarbonization sets these communities up for long term success.
Emissions reduction aligns with the global and national imperative to combat climate change. Increasingly this has become a baseline expectation of voters and therefore government. Policies such as carbon pricing, incentives for renewable energy projects, and stringent emission standards for industries are integral to this commitment. Addressing climate change is not only an environmental necessity but an economic opportunity for Canada. Global capital is shifting towards decarbonization, and Canada only risks being left behind by failing to adapt.
Achieving balance across these three pillars requires a nuanced and incremental approach by governments. Policies that do so are increasingly common as we gradually work to decarbonize our energy supply without creating new and acute challenges in the cost of supply and in the reliability of delivery. Success here is being driven by evidence-based decision making, that leans heavily on the wisdom of stakeholders who appreciate the dynamic nature of the energy landscape and the importance of flexibility in adapting our strategies to changing circumstances.
Dan Moulton is a Vice President at Crestview Strategy in Toronto. He specializes in building strategies that win public opinion and secure policy victories. Dan leads Canada’s largest corporations through periods of change, turmoil, and reputational risk. Based in the Toronto Office, Dan’s practice focuses on consumer-centric companies, disruptive technology, and energy.
The thing about balancing yourself on a three-legged stool is that if any of the legs give way, you topple right over. But fighting climate change is not a zero-sum game. We’re going to have to lower emissions, ensure energy security, and make life affordable.
It’s been a year since the U.S.’s Inflation Reduction Act was passed. Countries around the world are moving forward aggressively. Clearly inaction is not an option.
“If we fail to meet these challenges our businesses will lose out to international competitors, foreign investment will dry up, and Canada’s workers will be left on the EI lines, rather than on production lines manufacturing tomorrow’s low-emissions products.”
Without lowering emissions, we risk our economy being left behind in the new low-carbon global economy. Without keeping energy affordable, we risk leaving low-income families choosing between paying for groceries, rent or their energy bills. Without reliability, people lose faith with energy providers. In all cases, people will lay the blame back onto governments, which makes politicians unhappy.
We certainly can’t afford to make the mistake of hiding our head in the sand like an ostrich and wish the future away, as appears to be Alberta’s official government policy. Between a ban on renewable projects putting billions of investment dollars at risk and a stubborn refusal to work with other governments on a clean power grid plan, Danielle Smith is driving full speed towards a dead end that would leave Alberta’s economy, businesses, and workers all stranded.
We must act. We must prepare today for tomorrow’s realities. But lowering GHG emissions can be an economic win for Canada. It will mean developing new technologies that use less power, reducing overall demand. It will mean creating new economic opportunities while saving people and businesses money on the energy bills.
Canada is also positioned to be a leading supplier of critical minerals. We have businesses ready to make the shift to lower-emissions and cleaner manufacturing. We have a well-educated, hard-working, productive labour force.
In June, the federal government introduced the Sustainable Jobs Act. This lays out a roadmap for governments, businesses, and workers to collaborate on this once-in-a-generation transition. Working together, they can align governments’ climate action with delivering better training and apprenticeship support for workers alongside new economic opportunities for businesses.
Making sure we have workers at the table is critical to making this economic transition a success. Because thriving communities are built by workers who have fairly paid, good, jobs. The kinds of union jobs that allow young workers to support a family and even, perhaps one day, buy their own house.
After a summer of wildfires, mass evacuations, dangerous air quality and extreme weather, there’s no doubt climate change is real and getting worse. But Canada is a country with an abundance of resources — both human and natural. We are well positioned to successfully take on the future — as long as we don’t let the ostriches take over.
Kathleen Monk is Principal Owner at Monk + Associates, an independent public affairs firm. She appears regularly on CBC News Network’s Power and Politics and sits on the board of CIVIX, a non-partisan charity dedicated to building engaged citizens.