What do the results from the federal election tell us about Canadians’ perspectives on the country’s energy and environmental policy landscape?

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Canadian Gas Association.

By Tim Powers

Canada’s 44th general election concluded on September 20, 2021. The results of this vote almost completely mirrored the outcome of the 2019 campaign. The Liberals were returned to power again in a minority parliament setting. The Conservatives will again serve as the principal opposition party, with the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP looking to be more like partners than opponents for the Liberals when parliament returns on November 22nd.

Vote 2021 focused very little on environment and energy policy. It was in the end, more of a contest of whether Justin Trudeau should be re-elected or whether Erin O’Toole should be given a chance. While the current Prime Minister won, in the end he did not get his much sought-after majority. Post-election, Mr. O’Toole was subject to early calls from some parts of the Conservative movement to step down — for now though, it looks like he will hold on.

In the early days of the campaign, the future of Afghanistan, the withdrawal of Canada and allied troops from there, and the plight of many Afghans who had helped our country during the conflict, dominated the discussion. After a couple of weeks of intense coverage on that topic, the narrative moved to all matters pandemic, and then a self-made Conservative controversy on what weapons should be banned or not in Canada. You would have needed old legendary detective Colombo to find, beyond platform mentions, any discussion on energy in general, gas in particular, or the environment.

While the election may have offered little insight into what the next couple of years may mean in terms of environment and energy policy, I think there are some key indicators to watch for which might provide guidance. The first key indicator was the appointment of cabinet, and particularly the move of Jonathan Wilkinson from Environment and Climate Change (ECCC) to Natural Resources, and the placement of activist environmental advocate Steven Guilbeault at ECCC. A very strong focus on the environment is only going to become stronger. And the Prime Minister’s remarks at COP demonstrated that clearly.

Of course, the Throne Speech in late November will be another leading indicator of where the Trudeau government will go with policy. This could be a more crucial throne speech than the others during Justin Trudeau’s era if it sets out the agenda for what could be his final term.

Speculation in and around Ottawa isn’t usually worth very much but currently it is ripe with the notion that at some point during this parliament the Prime Minister will announce he is not running again. There are lots of reasons why that makes sense including the historical difficulty in one leader winning four consecutive governments and the Liberal Party’s general success in plotting hand offs of power.

But make no mistake about it, if Justin Trudeau is indeed stepping away from politics he will be legacy minded. It is not hard to conceive that one of the legacy items he would like would be an environmental one, featuring ambitious GHG targets, stepping away further from non-renewable resources and the accordant economic restructuring. It could be coming and with the NDP and Bloc as allies in the short term anything is possible.

“It is not hard to conceive that one of the legacy items he would like would be an environmental one, featuring ambitious GHG targets, stepping away further from non-renewable resources and the accordant economic restructuring.”

Tim Powers, is the Chair of Summa Strategies Canada and the managing director of Abacus Data, both headquarters are in Ottawa. Mr. Powers appears regularly on CBC’s Power and Politics program as well as on VOCM in his home province of Newfoundland and Labrador.


BY GABRIELA GONZALEZ

Some people dared to say that the 2021 federal election was a waste of time and resources, but I disagree for two reasons that define our times: childcare and climate. As a mom to a three-year-old, I have tangible arguments in support of affordable childcare. As a longtime Liberal who recently moved to Calgary from Toronto, I have a new perspective on energy and environmental policy and not surprising, that’s my focus here.

Canadians want real climate action

In the 2021 federal election, 16,035,732 million Canadians representing 94 per cent of the votes cast were for parties that had climate plans. Canadians from coast to coast to coast sent a clear message that they are past the point of debating and want real action to tackle the climate emergency.

“Canadians from coast to coast to coast sent a clear message that they are past the point of debating and want real action to tackle the climate emergency.”

Leadership from the energy sector

The Liberals’ 2015 climate policies were visionary and at times seen as too ambitious, but no doubt pushed industries, especially the resource-intensive energy sector, down the path of sustainability and diversification. In June of this year, Canada’s largest oil sands producers announced an unprecedented alliance to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to help Canada meet its climate goals, including the Paris Agreement commitments. This is meaningful action that sends a loud message to employees, investors, and Canadians that the sector is taking meaningful steps towards sustainability.

Calgarians and Edmontonians support bold climate action

While we know that Canadians in provinces like Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia are typically in favour of climate action, Albertans in four ridings surprised the country by electing NDP and Liberal MPs. What’s more, Calgarians and Edmontonians also elected progressive and diverse mayors. In Edmonton, Amarjeet Sohi, a former Liberal Natural Resources Minister, was elected as mayor with an impressive 45 per cent of the vote — more than double of his closest opponent. Despite a significant downturn in the Alberta economy due to yet another oil price crash and the effects of the pandemic, Calgarians and Edmontonians were audacious and voted for bold climate action.

Conservatives got serious about climate policy

The direction of the Conservative Party climate change policy, which included carbon pricing, surprised some Canadians, but most knew that a climate plan was a pre-requisite to be considered as a viable opposition, let alone government-in-waiting. An election exit poll commissioned by Clean Prosperity showed that over 40 per cent of Conservative voters said the party should do more on climate versus 10 per cent who said the party should do less. Including the carbon price in the conservative’s plan was a game-changer for the party. Over six in 10 voters said they can’t vote for a party without a credible climate plan and said that carbon tax is a priority for a credible plan.

In conclusion, this federal election was a win for Canadian families and the planet and we are all better off because of that.

Gabriela Gonzalez is a Director, Communications and Public Engagement at Argyle and a longtime Liberal volunteer who recently moved to Calgary from Toronto. She loves living near the mountains with her family and has embraced the Western Canadian identity. You can connect with her on Twitter @GabrielainYYC or LinkedIn.


BY KATHLEEN MONK

With catastrophic climate change happening all around us, and after a summer in Canada featuring record breaking heat waves and widespread forest fires, it was surprising that climate change and the environment didn’t dominate more of the federal election campaign.

And while the election results didn’t change the seat count much, that doesn’t mean the coming parliament will be just like the last one.

Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government, at least for a while, can’t use the big stick of a possible election hanging over the opposition parties. Meanwhile, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole will likely be more concerned in the coming months winning the support of his own caucus than about the Liberals. And while the New Democrats made some incremental gains, Election 2021 had no big winners. Even the party that suffered the biggest drop, the Green Party, could point to infighting as the cause, rather than a sign of Canadians’ changing views on the environment.

What has most changed in terms of Canada’s political landscape is how all the parties have now moved closer together on climate policy.

Liberals and Conservatives both proposed massive investments in carbon capture, a low-carbon fuel standard, and a regime of some sort that puts a price on carbon. While Conservatives still had strong commitments around supporting Canada’s oil and gas industry, they employed more explicit language than ever before acknowledging that climate change is real. The question now is to what extent Conservatives have really embraced this newfound concern for climate change, or will they snap back like a rubber band to their previous head-in-the-sand approach to these issues?

For the New Democrats, they made a strong case for why the Liberal government has not done enough to fight climate change. They put considerable efforts behind delivering the message that Trudeau’s government is strong on talk but weak on action around things like eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, and concrete measures to meet aggressive emission reduction targets.

Liberals will have to choose who their dance partner will be in the coming parliament. This will be the political move to watch. Will they look to get support from the Conservatives on things like carbon capture, and a more industry-friendly approach? Or will they look to partner with the NDP, on eliminating fossil fuel subsidies and more aggressive actions to fight climate change?

Knowing the Liberals modus operandi, the answer to these questions will lay in which path the party thinks will be more likely to led them towards a majority government.

Will they be more focused on keeping their support in Canada’s cities, and with younger voters? Or will they be more concerned about voters in the Prairies and those from more resource-dependent communities? And how quickly will climate change return as a top-of-mind issue for voters, once people feel the pandemic is truly waning away?

The first clear sign of an answer to these big questions will come when Governor General Mary Simon delivers the government’s Speech from the Throne.

Kathleen Monk is Principal Owner at Monk + Associates, an independent public affairs firm. She appears regularly on CBC News Network’s Power and Politics and sits on the board of CIVIX, a non-partisan charity dedicated to building engaged citizens.