How can Canada leverage its energy advantage, particularly natural gas, to position itself as a key partner in North American energy security?
If you like liquefied natural gas (LNG), you are going to love where Canadian politics and energy policy are headed as we move into 2026.
In a perverse way, the election of Donald Trump has positively re-engineered prospects for Canada’s natural gas sector and re-shaped domestic politics on this energy source. As US tariffs have soared, the world economy has lurched. The prospect of an own-goal recession by US policymakers is becoming very real. And nothing focuses the political mind like the prospect of job loss and economic contraction.
In that context, Canada is witnessing a rapid-fire transition in political priorities, much of which holds out the prospect of direct benefit to the natural gas sector. Prime Minister Mark Carney, since his election victory in April, has been clear that things are changing. When European leaders asked Justin Trudeau just a short while ago about the possibility of boosting LNG exports, the answer was pretty much no thanks. Carney’s new Energy Minister, Tim Hodgson, directly assured those same leaders in the summer that such reluctance is a thing of the past. As Canada seeks to expand trade with Europe (and Asia, to boot), LNG exports are likely to be a key focus.
The proof was in the pudding when, just recently, the Carney government revealed its first shortlist of major projects. Natural gas was a huge winner with Kitimat’s Phase II singled out, and the promise of more energy infrastructure down the road. Political consensus is also beginning to swirl around the deep-sea port of Churchill, which many business and political leaders see as a phenomenal opportunity to get more LNG to overseas markets. The durability and depth of provincial – and even Opposition support – for natural gas suggests a momentum that will be difficult to halt.
Against this backdrop, other signs point toward LNG potential. With every trade and diplomatic mission to Asia and Europe, the prospects for new sources of demand are gathering. And, as mentioned, the commitment to energy infrastructure should be reassuring to investors concerned about the viability of transporting such a product to customers.
But possibly the most encouraging factor is, once again, the discouraging tone coming from our neighbour to the south. As many leaders have pointed out, the most likely path for Canadian natural gas to find its way to Europe has been, ironically, through the US. It is estimated that 95% or more of our LNG exports arrive via America. In a world where Trump has all but abandoned the idea that Canada remains an ally, the political determination to enhance our ability to trade with the rest of the world is unlikely to erode. It has moved from an economic priority to a matter of sovereignty.
For 2026, whether borne of political reality, economic necessity or changing times, the federal government’s commitment to the natural gas sector has rarely looked stronger. And never seemed more certain to remain solid.
Scott Reid was director of communications to former prime minister Paul Martin, and is the co-founder of Feschuk.Reid.
Canada’s Natural Gas Opportunity: Time for Decisive Action
Canada stands on the threshold of a generational opportunity in natural gas. Our resources are coveted globally—European nations seek secure alternatives to Russian gas, and Asian economies are hungry for more energy to fuel their growth. With abundant reserves, a highly skilled workforce, and world-leading environmental standards, we are uniquely positioned to lead in responsible energy production. Yet federal missteps and overregulation have allowed other nations to surge ahead at Canada’s expense.
For nearly a decade, the Trudeau Liberal government’s anti-production agenda stifled investment and stalled progress in our natural gas sector. Policies like the emissions cap, uncompetitive carbon pricing system and restrictive methane regulations were presented as necessary for climate action, but in reality, they imposed rigid limits that discouraged innovation and made it nearly impossible for producers to expand responsibly. The tanker ban and “no-pipelines act” further restricted the development of essential infrastructure, trapping Canadian natural gas within our borders while global markets called out for reliable supply.
Meanwhile, Canada’s competitors – including the United States – seized the opportunity and built LNG terminals at a record pace, supplying Europe and Asia with energy that could (and should) have been Canadian. This failure to strike while the iron was hot not only cost Canadians thousands of good-paying jobs but also diminished our geopolitical influence at a critical time. Instead of taking a place of global leadership and reinforcing our dominance on the world stage, we ceded territory to the United States and other producers.
Prime Minister Carney’s recent election was supposed to signal a new era – one focused on economic growth, results, and getting projects built. Canadians were promised less talk and more action. Instead, despite the early change in language and tone, signs point to a continuation of the same regulatory paralysis that hampered the previous government. While the much-touted Major Projects Office is a welcome initiative, a piecemeal approach will not unlock Canada’s full potential.
The path to becoming an energy superpower is clear: government must step back and let Canadian innovation and expertise lead. Canada must prioritize projects that can be built and scaled rapidly, allowing our industry to diversify markets and support new sectors such as data centres powered by Canadian energy. It must create a predictable regulatory framework that applies fairly to all projects. It does not need government handholding. Real success will not come from ad-hoc policies or political favoritism, but from clarity, competitiveness, and consistency. The federal government must send a strong, single signal to global investors that Canada is open for business, committed to responsible energy production, and determined to grow its natural gas sector.
If Ottawa acts decisively, the benefits will be profound: increased investment, good-paying jobs across the country, and greater economic growth for the entire nation. The time for half-measures and endless consultations is over. Canadians deserve a government that will champion our natural gas sector and empower our workers to compete and win on the world stage.
The choice before us is urgent and clear. Canada can seize this opportunity – or watch it slip away to the advantage of others. The time to act is now.
Robin Guy is a Vice President with Crestview Strategy in Ottawa. He brings nearly 20 years of public affairs experience, including over ten years serving as a political staffer for several cabinet ministers during the Harper Government.
How can Canada leverage its energy advantage, particularly natural gas, to position itself as a key partner in North American energy security?
Every cubic meter of natural gas beneath Canadian soil represents both a promise and a warning. A promise of energy security and prosperity. But a warning because as the world transitions toward, lower-emission sources of power, the question of how to leverage Canada’s natural gas resources in a way that promotes energy security while upholding environmental commitments is crucial.
Canada’s vast natural gas reserves provide us an opportunity to strengthen our country’s energy security at a time global supply chains, global oil markets and our trading relationships – particularly with the U.S. – become more volatile and unstable.
The real question isn’t whether to develop our massive gas reserves – it’s how to do it in a way that fosters greater energy independence without sacrificing our climate commitments or betraying workers and families. While consecutive governments have kicked this challenge down the road, time is running out. If that wasn’t clear before Donald Trump was elected President, it certainly is now.
The numbers don’t lie. Canada sits on one of the world’s largest natural gas reserves. And yes, it burns cleaner than coal. But without proper oversight, Indigenous partnership, and more made-in-Canada upgrading, this advantage becomes just another lost opportunity.
Expanding our fossil fuel infrastructure without clear climate safeguards risks undermining Canada’s emissions reduction targets. Canada’s leadership should not come from merely supplying more fossil fuels but from demonstrating how an energy-rich country like ours can also lead in decarbonization.
The path forward also demands real partnership with Indigenous communities. Not just consultation, but genuine economic participation. If Canada is to develop its natural gas resources responsibly, Indigenous leadership must be central to project planning and benefit-sharing agreements. No more empty promises.
Canada’s natural gas advantage must be a bridge, not a detour. We can’t use it as a license to delay the transition to clean energy. Instead, it must pave the path to a renewable future. The revenues generated from natural gas exports should be reinvested into large-scale renewable energy projects, grid modernization, and green technology innovation. We need the next government to commit to policy instruments that help fund necessary investments to make Canadian natural gas the cleanest in North America.
This isn’t just about doing what’s right; it’s about putting the Canadian people at the centre of both our industrial and climate policy.
For too long, workers have been left to navigate the shift to a low-carbon economy on their own. That’s wrong. Skilled Canadian workers will build our low-carbon future, and they must be front and centre around the decision-making table as we plan for it. That means good, union jobs, comprehensive skills training, and concrete transition programs that ensure no region is left behind.
This isn’t a choice between energy security and environmental responsibility, as some argue. It’s about whether we choose to remain stuck in a failed status quo or have the courage to build a new energy economy with greater economic security and thriving, livable communities across Canada. That’s what putting Canada first really looks like.
Kathleen Monk is Principal Owner at Monk + Associates, an independent public affairs firm. She appears regularly on CBC News Network’s Power and Politics and sits on the board of CIVIX, a non-partisan charity dedicated to building engaged citizens.